Thursday, September 8, 2011

Perth Mint 2012 Lunar Dragons Continued

Firstly, previous posts on the Dragon coins can be reviewed here:


Apologies in advance to those who aren't interested in the Dragon coins, but here comes another post about them!

The bullion coins have been performing extremely strongly with sales on eBay Australia achieving some crazy prices. $165 per coin and higher in some cases. The sales at $165 (which included post) were verified as 'paid for' by a member of Silver Stackers (see this thread), so are not just empty auctions where a non-paying bidder has pushed up the price.

Interestingly when we checkout eBay Germany's completed sales the final price of the coins has been falling over the last week. Where prices were being achieved around 69 Euros (AUD$91) in auction conditions, they are now only reaching 64 Euros (AUD$85), in some cases even lower.

With a majority of the bullion coins being shipped overseas one has to wonder if the higher prices being achieved on eBay Australia are a reflection of the lower availability or is it simply the uninformed bidding up the prices? I suspect uninformed buyers as surely they could just find an international dealer who could ship them to Australia much cheaper than $165 per coin!

It will be intriguing to see how well the premiums for the bullion coin hold up. Some are suggesting that a drop back to the $60-70 level might be likely. That's not an unreasonable suggestion, but given many European dealers have been selling these for a very high premium I have to wonder whether this will put a floor under the prices.

Another recent example of a Perth Mint coin which rose after selling out and then crashed in price was the Clownfish coin from the Australian Sea Life series. It sold out at the Perth Mint shortly after release then was bid up on eBay until they were selling for around $100 per coin (Silver content was worth around $10 at the time), but then they crashed back to earth and now only sell around the $45 level (less than issue price). I think the big difference with the Dragon coins is that they have a lot of appeal to an international audience and a majority have been shipped overseas, whereas the Clownfish coins were a local pump and dump.

As I discussed in Tuesday's post, the Silver proof Dragon coins went on sale earlier in the week bringing down the Perth Mint website. They are currently now all listed as 'unavailable' on the Perth Mint site. It would seem the proof Gold versions have not been as popular and are still available, although I would suggest that these will likely sell out in time as well.

Most would be aware that the Lunar coin series from the Perth Mint has several variations that are released alongside the standard bullion version of the coin. We have the proof version as discussed above, there are also coloured and gilded editions of the coin that are yet to be released. As I understand it the mintages will be as follows:

1 oz Silver Dragon Coloured (Mintage: 10,000)
1/2 oz Silver Dragon Colored (Mintage: 10,000)
1 oz Silver Dragon Gilded (Gold Plated) (Mintage: 50,000)

I have never been a fan of the coloured Lunar coins, they look tacky. However the Gilded versions are a nice looking coin, the 2000 Dragon is pictured below:


They have not been a very popular typeset in Series II, however that could change with release of the 2012 gilded Dragon.

I would personally much prefer to pay $107 for a Gilded coin with display case & certificate with a mintage of 50,000 than $100 for a straight bullion coin that has a mintage of 300,000.

The Year 2000 Gilded coin varies greatly in price when sold today. It makes it even more difficult that many sold online are in their capsule only, rather than with the display case and certificate they were issued with. Sales with capsule only have been selling for around $210-$230, but a recent sale on eBay shows that with the extras buyers are prepared to pay a lot more (this one going for $350). This is only one sale, but if a 'complete' 2000 Gilded coin sells for around twice the price of the 2000 bullion coin, then we may see a similar premium attached to the 2012 gilded coin once released and sold out. 

While the maximum mintage of the 2000 coins was the same then as now, the sales of the Dragon coins then was much lower. The bullion variety Dragon sales were 118,697 (of 300,000 max), the gilded variety sold 20,447 (of 50,000 max). While that means there are far fewer gilded variety around, it's interesting to note that around 40% of the maximum mintage was sold in both cases.

With the bullion 2012 Dragon already easily selling for $100 per coin in Australia, could we see the gilded coin double to $200 in value shortly after selling out? I suspect at the very least they will obtain a heavy premium over issue price so have placed a bulk order for them personally.

I'm not normally a numismatic buyer and the last time I bought a numismatic item like this in bulk was that darned Clownfish coin (20 of which I still have kicking around somewhere), so follow my lead on this coin at your own risk!


BB.

 Buy bullion online - quickly, safely and at low prices

12 comments:

  1. Seems there will have a big traffic jam on the launch day. Look forward to seeing my order go through, you reckon they will have limit per customer??

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  2. On the gilded/coloured coins? I think they will, but hard to know for sure.

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  3. Where do u see silver in 2012? I want to get the dragon set but if prices fall I want to wait.

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  4. I would just be guessing on Silver price Anon. In my opinion higher as I've suggested believe we are entering mania phase of bull market, but recessionary pressures could hold the price down.

    Not all 1oz coins have been delivered to buyers/dealers yet. I expect prices of the Dragon to fall short term (as more come onto the market with their delivery), but given they are achieving a numismatic premium already I wouldn't count on lower Dragon prices for the 1oz coin in 2012 even if the price of Silver is lower.

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  5. Any guess as to when the 1 oz and 3 coin proof sets will start shipping? I've seen a couple pop up on Ebay, wonder how they got theirs so quickly?

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  6. Seems some have already received their orders:

    http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-14934-so-who-has-the-lucky-dragon-proofs.html

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  7. Have you seen these BB?

    I am EXTREMELY FURIOUS these are not made available locally. What seemed to be the problem? We are not interested? Can't afford?

    Could someone tell PM off on all local enthusiasts' behalf.

    Often times we heard the best fresh produce, fruits, meats and seafoods are exported and now coins?! We have been shortchanged for far too long.

    Stay silent and... serves us right.

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  8. Sorry BB, no link, that didn't help did it.

    http://www.chinacoin.com/shop/aozhou.html

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  9. Bit hard to respond in detail as only have internet access on mobile at present, but ron currie mentioned that these were specifically requested and destined for the chinese market. Doesnt surprise that we wont see them here.

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  10. I own a 2012 silver dragon pf70 any clue of what it's worth?

    Aj in boston

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  11. Sorry Aj, not sure other than looking at final eBay sales for comparison.

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  12. I now own the 2012 silver dragon proof in .5 ounce, one ounce and two ounce all PF70. Three complete sets in the world.


    AJ in Boston

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