Saturday, August 20, 2011

Percentage Gains - Gold - 1970s vs Today

The following chart was created using daily London PM Fix price data courtesy of Perth Mint's historical data.

The chart shows the percentage gain made over the period 1971 to mid 1980 (blue) vs the period 2001 to mid 2011 (red). Daily price data only goes to August 1st (US$1623), so not showing is the larger spike to almost US$1900 (over the past few weeks) which would take the percentage gain to around 700% for the current bull market.

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

Just goes to show how much more there might be left in the current bull run and how quickly it could play out once the wheels are in motion (if we are to see a similar parabolic move to that made over 1978-1980).


BB.


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6 comments:

  1. That charts shows me that we are still in phase two and at same point as mid-70s.

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  2. Inclined to disagree Bron. From my point of view a single chart or price point does not decide the phases of the bull market, but just for a minute I will entertain that these bull markets will play out very similarly from a percentage gain point of view...

    It was October 1978 (late, not mid seventies) that Gold first attempted to take the 700% gain level. That is where we are now in this bull market (1850/270 = 685%).

    From 700% onwards is where Gold went parabolic in the 1970s bull market. If we are to see a similar move this time over a similar time frame then we have roughly 16 months left until the peak, I would say that puts us squarely in the early stages of phase 3 which is where I believe we are (media attention phase, but for different reasons).

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  3. Can you please extend blue chart pass the point of the spike? Would love to see how it crashed. Would be nice to see scale at the bottom to estimate time frame of the spike

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  4. Would have liked to have put the dates on there Val, but Excel 2010 was not playing ball. Need some more practice on formatting charts by the looks!

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  5. BB

    change one chart type to a differnt type (say bar) then add another axis, then change back to the same type and the new axis sticks

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  6. change one series type to a different chart ...

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