Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Another classic quote from Christopher Joye

Those who are familiar with Christopher Joye's ramblings are probably well aware that the guy has tickets on himself and they are more than you can afford buddy... Ferrari (pat yourself on the back if you got that reference).

He loves to point out how right he is.

Take this post on his blog for example (LINK) where he retrieves quotes over the past 2 years showing how right he has been this whole time.

What's amusing is that two weeks prior to that post Joye gave some expectations for 2011 in a post titled 'Where to for Australia's housing market?', here is an excerpt:
"If the doomsayers on the domestic economy are right, rates are not going anywhere (I obviously don't agree with them). In this case, we will get mild nominal house price growth over 2011, which will likely underperform inflation (ie, real declines, as we have seen for the last year).
If rates do rise a few times this year (as I expect), nominal dwelling prices will go nowhere or retrench modestly (eg, 0-5% year-on-year), depending on the number of hikes."
Those of you who follow financial news are probably already aware that RPData/Rismark released their housing index figures today (LINK):

Over the first seven months of 2011, Australian capital city home values were down -3.4 per cent.
There's some great analysis of the figures over at MacroBusiness (here and here).


So not only has Chris Joye been wrong on the interest rates which he has been harping on about for the most part of this year (boy who cried wolf much?), but his prediction that we would see nominal house price growth has also been wrong... well that is unless house prices do an about turn and climb back to where they were at the start of the year (seems very unlikely at this point, as pointed out by Data Sword in first linked MB article "The longstanding relationship between house prices and monthly housing finance suggest we can expected falling prices for some time to come").

This is what Christopher Joye had to say on the release of the index results:
"If rates do remain on hold, or begin to fall, we would expect to see Australia's housing market find a base and begin to generate capital gains again. If the RBA has really come to the end of its tightening cycle - which we would find surprising given the high core inflation revealed over the last six months - 2011-12 will likely be judged one of the best buying windows seen in quite some time. The turning point will arrive when otherwise hawkish Australian consumers accept the notion that rates are not going to inexorably increase"
I suspect this will be a quote that we will be able to reflect back on and have a chuckle at in a few years time.


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Oh and before I forget... I love how Christopher Joye takes aim at other analysts while keeping the comments to his blog turned off. Poor form CJ.


BB.

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4 comments:

  1. I always noticed the equivocation in his comments. Why people found someone who was generally so vague about things and all over the place, useful is a mystery to me. But I guess it is a testament to people's willingness to follow overconfident zealots if they tell them generally what they want to hear.

    In the past few years, Joye had an easy time of it and didn't really have to do any work. Just "houses prices are going up". Now, when some real analysis and prediction is required, he has been found out.

    What he should do now is move his focus to the Gold market. That'll give him a few more years. "Gold is going nominally higher in 2012"...

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  2. Yes I suspect if he continues to be a 'price correction denier' then he is going to have egg on his face for years to come.

    Keep him away from Gold thanks ;)

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  3. He should be Australia's most successful property investor with the information advantage he thinks he has. Never mentions his personal portfolio, but the first to clobber Steve Keen's PPR apartment sale some years ago.

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  4. A man who easily confused his own brilliance with a bull market.

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