Thursday, February 3, 2011

AFG Mortgage Statistics - January 2011

AFG have released their lending statistics for the month of January, you can view the statistics and their commentary on this PDF.

Delusional Economics has covered this release in detail over on the new Macro Business Super Blog. I couldn't agree more with their analysis and discussion points so don't see much point duplicating it here, it's worth the jump to read for yourself in full.

Thanks goes out to AusHousingCrash on Twitter for the idea to chart the raw figures. Here are the last 3.5 years worth of raw lending figures from AFG who make up approximately 10% of all new Australian mortgages.

While the dip into a January low is a seasonal occurrence, you will notice that there is also a distinct trend that has formed in the charted data over the past two years. Looks like a downtrend to me with lower highs and lowers lows. 

I've posted this chart from the RBA on the blog before, but I think it is worth re-posting, it shows a correlation between reduced lending, low auction clearance rates and falling prices:

We've got the dismal lending figures, we've got the low clearance rates, it's time to see the falling prices.

It's been a while since I posted about the REIV's auction clearance rates, but I will resume tracking this data early in the new year when it makes sense to. Last weekend the REIV only reported 126 auctions and they are only expecting 180 for this coming weekend, the real test will start the weekends following where 390 are expected on the 12th/13th of February and then 700 the weekend after (19th/20th).


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